Baku, Azerbaijan, April 16. The World Trade
Organization (WTO) expects economic growth in the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) to slow over the next two years, Trend reports.
According to the WTO’s latest forecast, GDP growth at market
exchange rates in CIS countries is projected at 2.2% in 2025 under
the baseline scenario, and 2.3% in the adjusted forecast. In 2026,
growth is expected to ease further to 1.8% in both scenarios.
This comes after a GDP expansion of 3.9% in 2023 and 4.3% in
2024.
At the start of the year, WTO economists expected to see
continued expansion of world trade in 2025 and 2026, with
merchandise trade volume growth picking up gradually over time in
line with GDP, and commercial services trade volume growing even
faster. A profusion of new tariff measures announced and
implemented since January prompted WTO economists to re-examine the
trade landscape, resulting in a significant downgrade to the
outlook for merchandise trade, and a smaller reduction in the
outlook for services trade.
After adjusting baseline projections to account for the impact
of recently announced tariffs and heightened trade policy
uncertainty, WTO economists now foresee a -0.2% contraction in
merchandise trade in 2025 – down from +2.9% in 2024 – followed by a
2.5% increase in 2026 reflecting weaker global demand. Meanwhile,
growth in commercial services trade is expected to slow to 4.0%
this year from 6.8% last year before ticking up to 4.1% next
year.