DISY remains in first place with a percentage of 18% in the intention to vote, with AKEL ranked second with a percentage of 17.6%, according to a poll conducted by the company Prime Consulting on behalf of the TV channel SIGMA.
When asked if the elections were held next Sunday, ELAM is the third party with 10% and ALMA the fourth with 8%. It is followed by DIKO with 7.4%, Direct Democracy with 6.2%, Volt with 3.6%, EDEK with 2.3%, the Environmentalists’ Movement with 1.9%, DIPA with 1.7% and Active Citizens – Movement of United Cypriot Hunters with 1%. Undecideds reach 10%, while 2.4% of participants said they would abstain and 1.6% said they would throw a blank/void.
Valid
DISY remains the first party in valid ballots with 18.8%, AKEL second with 18.3%, ELAM third with 10.4% and ALMA fourth with 8.3%. It is followed by DIKO with 7.7%, Direct Democracy with 6.5%, Volt with 3.8%, EDEK with 2.4%, the Environmentalists’ Movement with 2%, DIPA with 1.8% and Active Citizens – Movement of United Cypriot Hunters with 1%.
Assemblies
The highest rally is recorded by AKEL with 72%, followed by ELAM with 64%, DISY with 60%, DIKO with 57% and DIPA with 50%. The gathering of EDEK reaches 40% and the Environmental Movement at 26%.
The pool of undecideds
According to the poll data, the largest group of citizens who are currently undecided voted for DISY in 2021, at 26%. This finding largely explains the pressure the party is under in the estimation of seats, as a significant part of its base remains distant from the party. AKEL and DIKO follow with significantly smaller percentages, both of which contribute 9% to the pool of undecideds.
Interestingly, new voters (those who did not vote in 2021) make up 11% of undecideds, while 10% come from abstaining from previous elections. The smaller parties (Environmentalists with 4%, EDEK and DIPA with 3%) have less penetration in this group, while ELAM seems to have the highest rally, as only 1% of today’s undecideds state that they would have voted for it in 2021.
Finally, a significant percentage (14%) refuses to answer about their previous choice, while 5% of undecideds come from people who had voted invalid or white.
Fragmentation of forces and rise of new parties
According to Prime Consulting’s seat estimate for SIGMA, the political scene is heading for a radical reorganization, with the traditional parties receiving strong pressure from the new formations and ELAM.
The poll shows a clear downward trend for the two major factions, with DISY securing 13 to 15 seats (from 17 in 2021) and AKEL from 12 to 14 seats (from 15 in 2021). At the same time, ELAM seems to be establishing itself as a third political force, showing an increase in 7-9 seats, almost doubling its strength from the 4 seats of the previous elections.
At the same time, DIKO records significant losses, falling to 5-6 seats from the 9 it held. The void left by the traditional parties seems to be covered by three new formations that are dynamically entering the frame: Direct Democracy and Alma, both of which are estimated at 6-7 seats, as well as Volt, which is expected to secure 2-4 seats.
Finally, the Environmentalists, DIPA and EDEK are in an extremely critical position, which from the 3 and 4 seats respectively in 2021, are now limited to the scale of 0-2, which puts into doubt their entry into the new Parliament.
Research ID
