The battle of the parliamentary elections is extremely ambivalent due to the large percentage of undecideds and the low rally recorded by several parties in the opinion polls. There are not a few political forces that believe that their actual percentages will be reflected in the ballot box, essentially questioning the results of public opinion surveys. However, the polls give some estimates of the election result and an image of the voters’ choices, even if only as a snapshot of the moment. ALMA and the Direct Republic of Cyprus seem to be securing entry into Parliament with great ease and are even claiming an important position on the new party map, while there are at least four small parties with good chances such as Volt, EDEK, DIPA and the Environmental Movement.
JUMP
The ALMA Movement led by Odysseus Michaelidis is fighting for fourth place, with the most recent polls showing the intention to vote without a reduction at rates between 6.4% and 9.5%. In fact, the poll by RAI Consultants on behalf of Alpha Cyprus showed that ALMA secures 6 seats in the Parliament, while the poll by Pulse Market Research on behalf of Omega put scenarios up to 8 seats.
However, in the movement, there is also an optimistic scenario for 9 seats on the table, if a significant portion of the undecided vote for ALMA. In fact, the party’s estimates indicate that ALMA will receive two seats in Nicosia, one or two in Limassol and one seat each in the other provinces except Kyrenia.
In the last Alpha Cyprus poll there were cards with the leading candidates of several parties. For ALMA, the poll showed that Odysseas Michaelidis and Irini Charalambidou are the favorites in the Nicosia province. In Limassol, the dominant parties are Michalis Paraskevas and Miltos Papadopoulos. A party official told “P” that the above two indications “sound reasonable” and emphasized that the party does not conduct internal polls.
Of the six candidates of the movement in the electoral district of Larnaca, two seem to have some advantage due to the strong presence they have in the media. They are the communication secretary of the Movement Panagiotis Evaggelidis and the internationalist Petros Zarounas. One of the two will be elected MP if ALMA finally gets a seat in the city of Zenon. In Famagusta it is difficult to make calculations because six nominations have been “locked in” and five more will be announced in the coming days. Not even in Paphos is there a clear picture, with a party executive declaring to “P” that each candidate has his own characteristics.
Direct Democracy
The party of MEP Phidias Panagiotou claims the fourth place with the latest measurements showing that it reaches 7.3%. The recent Alpha Cyprus poll showed that he secures 7 seats in the Parliament, while the Omega poll put scenarios between 4 and 7 seats.
However, the Alpha Cyprus poll highlighted the party’s leading candidates in three constituencies. In the district of Nicosia, the order of ranking was as follows: Phidias Panagiotou, Minas Giorkas, Yannis Laouris, Marina Georgiou, Ioannis Damianou and Nikos Loukas (sausage maker). In the district of Limassol, Dimitris Souglis was first, Kostakis Antoniou was second and Yiannis Tsitsis was third. The leading candidates in the province of Famagusta were the vice president of the party Diana Konstantinidis, Eleni Menelaou and Dimitris Patsias.
A party official told “P” that Direct Democracy does not conduct internal polls and made it clear that he does not trust them. He then said that the party expects a percentage that will exceed 10% and emphasized that they expect to secure at least 7 seats. Three seats in Nicosia, two in Limassol and two in Famagusta, while they do not rule out the possibility of receiving one seat in Larnaca and one in Paphos.
In Direct Democracy they do not seem to agree with the poll results showing the leading candidates. A party executive told “P” that the internal party elections held electronically on the app had a different result in Nicosia in terms of the dominant parties and recalled that Yannis Lauris was second in preference crosses, third was Nikolas Loukas and fourth was Elena Mitella.
In Limassol, the ranking of the internal party elections does not differ, according to the assessment of the Alpha Cyprus poll, while in Famagusta only Dimitris Patsias overturns the ranking of the elections in the app. It is recalled that in Paphos the first in preference crosses was Dimitris Baros, in Kyrenia Konstantinos Kyprianou and in Larnaca Vasilios Thrasyvoulos.
Volt
Volt Cyprus reached 3.6% in the Alpha Cyprus poll, securing entry into Parliament with three seats. In the Omega poll the party’s percentage was 3.5% and there were scenarios of zero to three seats. Based on the Alpha poll, there were seven leading candidates in Nicosia province. First was Alexandra Attalidou, second was Makarios Drusiotis, third was Sophia Vassiliou, fourth was Andromache Sophokleous, followed by Alexandros Apostolidis, Rodoula Dimitriadou and Efi Xanthou.
Meanwhile, a party official expressed serious doubts about the scenarios with the leading candidates due to a small sample. He also expressed the assessment that Volt has 4-5 candidates who can receive two thousand votes. There is, as he said, the optimistic scenario for rates of 4% to 5%. In this case, he noted, it is expected that Volt will receive two seats in Nicosia, one in Famagusta and one in Limassol. He even explained that Volt has a big foothold in Famagusta due to the fact that there was previously the party “Famagusta – For Cyprus” with a sufficient number of votes, while Limassol is a big city that can bring in enough votes.
Some Volt members and executives believe that there are candidates with great potential in the Nicosia constituency. Alexandra Attalidou, Makarios Drousiotis, Andromachi Sofokleous, Charilaos Velaris, Costas Costas and Efi Xanthou are some of the strong names of the capital. In Famagusta there is a feeling that the press representative of the party Pieros Karoullas, the municipal councilor of Famagusta Iota Auxentiou and Artemios Michael have been significantly displaced. In Limassol, Andreas Soutziis, Panos Parras, Penelope Vaskes Hatjilyra and Phryni Onoufriou-Christodoulou seem to have great potential. In Larnaca, Michalis Kalopaidis shows a dynamic and in Kyrenia, Natasa Ioannou, who received a significant number of votes with the Environmental Movement in 2021. In Paphos, there is no clear picture of the favorites.
EDEK
EDEK consider the party’s entry into Parliament as a given, with the executives’ optimism also based on the preliminary results of the poll conducted on behalf of the faction. “P” information states that the opinion survey is ongoing and is being conducted for internal use, with a sample of approximately 1300 people. According to the information provided by the company conducting the research, the percentage of EDEK seems to vary from 4.2% to 4.8%.
A source within the party told “P” that with the above percentage, EDEK will win three seats in the Parliament. He estimated that the seat in Larnaca will be lost, but he will gain a seat in Nicosia, one in Limassol and one in Paphos. He reminded that EDEK received 24,024 votes in 2021 and emphasized that in this election they expect to get around 18,000. He said that the party received about 9,000 thousand votes in Nicosia in 2021 and the estimate is that this time they will receive around 5,600.
Another party executive stated that none of the MPs is re-claiming a seat, stressing that this fact creates opportunities and competitive conditions for the party’s candidates. This competition, he said, has a positive effect on the rally rate and the number of votes, since the candidates will work hard for their election.
However, the ongoing poll provides some clues about the leading candidates of the EDEK. According to a party source, the poll up to last Wednesday had a modest sample of 38 people saying they would vote for EDEK in Nicosia. From this sample comes an estimate of the dominant candidates in the capital. The deputy president of the party Morfakis Solomonidis ranks first with 62%, Marios Hannidis second with 43% and followed by Takis Christodoulou (42%), Sofia Christodoulou (25%) and Charalambos Christodoulou (24%).
In Limassol, the corresponding sample is even smaller, with 7-8 people. However, it shows that the most dominant is Lysandros Lysandrou, followed by Adonis Konstantinou and Paris Pittakaras. In Paphos, the sample concerns around 13 people and it seems that Vassos Dimitriou leads the way and Vassilis Theodorou follows.
DIPA
At DIPA they believe that the polls do not show the real picture and the optimism for a percentage over 5% is clearly manifested. A party official pointed out that DIPA has strong ballots and currently holds two critical ministries, with Vassilis Palmas in the Ministry of Defense and Marino Musiutta in the Ministry of Labour. He also mentioned that the party hosts experienced executives with social displacement such as Christos Patsalidis and Kyriakos Kenevezos.
As far as the leading candidates in the five constituencies are concerned, there is a feeling among some DIPA officials that in Nicosia the strongest candidates are the MPs Alekos Tryfonidis and Giorgos Penindaex, the party’s vice-president Marinos Kleanthos and Nestoras Nestoros. They also think that there will be a good result in Limassol because the party president Marios Karoyan is not re-claiming the seat and therefore candidates from the province have great chances, which motivates them to work even harder. Various names are also heard such as Marios Stylianou (former football player of AEL), Ioannis Tsappas, Loizos Michael (he was an adviser to Nikos Nouris when he was Minister of the Interior).
In Famagusta, the president of the “Agia Napa” football team and doctor Sergis Sergiou, the vice-president of the specific team Andreas Vrachimis and Michalis Zentilis seem to have momentum. Giorgos Koumas (lawyer) and Despina Papadopoulou (radiologist) are showing momentum in Larnaca. In Paphos, Andreas Kesouris (was a school administrator), Euclides Ambrosiadis (municipal councilor) and Fanos Chrysanthous (philologist). Also, great expectations are being created in Kyrenia by Michalis Skordis from the Maronite community, who has access to the business community and is active in the public sphere.
Environmentalists
The Environmental Movement – Citizens’ Cooperation has so far conducted two large polls for internal use and is preparing for another one in the first ten days of May. The information of “P” states that the second poll about fifteen days ago with a sample of close to 2,500 thousand people showed that the party receives a percentage of 2.9% and with reduction it reaches 3.4%.
A party source said the turnout was close to 55% and the poll was conducted before the partnership with the Animal Party was even announced. Therefore, he noted, the percentage will be higher and reminded that the Party for Animals received 1% with 3,593 votes in the parliamentary elections of 2021. He added that the collaboration with the Social Ecology Movement in which Athos Agapitos has a leading role was recently announced. “50% of the candidates”, he added, “are cooperating persons and this shows that there is a hidden vote that will be manifested at the ballot box”.
The Movement aims for the percentage of 2021 (4.41%), despite the losses entailed by the departure of several executives, when MP Alexandra Attalidou left the party. Therefore, the optimistic scenario envisages three seats, two in Nicosia and one in Limassol. However, if they secure a percentage marginally above 3.6%, then they expect that there will be two seats.
In the internal polls of the Movement, certain trends can be found in terms of the dominant candidates in certain provinces. In Nicosia, Andreas Theofanous, Andreas Christou, Oz Karahan, Virginia Christou, Elena Lymbouri, Maria Kola, Alexia Sakadaki and Adonis Yagou seem to have a lead. In Limassol, Stavros Papadouris, Zenonas Nicolaidis, Maria Diamantidou, Monica Pieridou and Akis Ioannidis are showing momentum. In Famagusta, which lost the seat to Limassol in 2021 with a difference of about 150 votes, Kyriakos Kyriakou and Michalis Paraschos seem to be showing momentum.